Japan's tourism industry has experienced a significant shift, with a notable decline in visitor numbers for the first time in four years. This downturn is primarily attributed to the absence of Chinese tourists, amidst ongoing tensions between Japan and China.
The latest government data reveals a 4.9% drop in visitors to Japan during January, compared to the previous year. This marks the first decline since January 2022, with a total of 3.6 million inbound visitors last month, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO).
The decrease is largely driven by a substantial 61% fall in arrivals from China, down to 385,300. Beijing has been discouraging its citizens from traveling to Japan since November, following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's controversial comments about a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Takaichi's remarks, suggesting a possible military response from Tokyo, have contributed to the simmering tensions between the two nations.
Additionally, the shift in the Lunar New Year holiday season, which fell in mid-February this year instead of late January, further impacted visitor arrivals, as noted by JNTO.
Masato Koike, a senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, predicts that the decline in Chinese visitors is likely to persist for some time. He draws attention to a similar situation in 2012, when it took a significant 15 months for Chinese tourist numbers to recover after a period of strained bilateral relations.
"If this situation continues, the impact on the Japanese economy could be substantial," Koike warns. Chinese visitors accounted for a significant 21.2% of inbound spending in 2025, highlighting their economic importance to Japan's tourism sector.
Despite the decline in Chinese visitors, South Korea emerged as the top source of visitors in January, with a substantial 22% increase to 1.18 million, setting a new record for a single month. For the first time, any country or region surpassed the 1.1 million mark. Visitors from other Asian countries, such as Thailand and Indonesia, also saw an increase.
Shoji Imai, who manages a kimono rental shop in Tokyo's Asakusa district, noted the noticeable absence of Chinese tourists but expressed that visitors from other countries have helped fill the gap. "We still have customers from countries like Thailand and Singapore, so overall sales haven't changed much," Imai said.
Arrivals from Taiwan increased by 17% to 694,500, while visitors from the United States grew by 14% to 207,800. However, registrations from the Chinese territory of Hong Kong fell by 18% to 200,000.
Japan's inbound tourism had been steadily climbing since the lifting of pandemic-era restrictions, frequently surpassing pre-Covid levels. This recent decline highlights the vulnerability of the tourism industry to geopolitical tensions and the importance of diverse visitor sources for economic resilience.
