Nigeria's economy has faced a significant downturn under the All Progressives Congress (APC) rule, with a GDP contraction of over 50%, from approximately $574 billion in 2015 to around $230 billion today. This alarming decline, as highlighted by former presidential contender and Kwara State governorship candidate, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, is not merely a temporary setback but a clear indicator of deep-rooted policy failures. The situation is particularly concerning as it reflects a collapse across various key productive sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing, rather than a temporary dip.
In an interview with ARISE NEWS, Olawepo-Hashim emphasized that the dramatic fall in Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a stark reflection of the economic challenges faced by the country's citizens. He pointed out that the official narratives of recovery do not align with the economic realities on the ground, where nearly every sector of the economy has seen a decline.
One of the critical issues, according to Olawepo-Hashim, is the severe undermining of agriculture, once a stabilizing force in the economy. Insecurity and policy missteps have led to a loss of about $5 billion in the sector over the past two years, as attempts to artificially suppress food prices have backfired. The over-devaluation of the Naira has increased the cost of imported inputs, and instead of supporting farmers, the government has allowed massive food importation from heavily subsidized countries, nearly collapsing Nigeria's agricultural sector.
The currency devaluation has further exacerbated the GDP figures when measured in dollar terms. Nigeria's current GDP of about $230 billion is lower than what it recorded under former President Olusegun Obasanjo nearly two decades ago, despite a much larger population. This is a stark contrast to the economic achievements under Obasanjo, who achieved 5.5% growth in 2000 and 9.5% by 2003.
Olawepo-Hashim dismisses the claims that recent economic shocks, such as COVID-19, are the primary reasons for the decline. He points out that Nigeria still maintained GDP levels above $300 billion during the pandemic years, indicating that the current situation is not solely due to external factors.
The former contender also questions the projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Nigeria could become Africa's third-largest economy by 2026, describing them as misleading and politically convenient. He argues that with a 50% loss in GDP and a 4% growth rate, Nigeria is still deeply in deficit, and this 'Mickey Mouse growth' cannot lift the country out of its current economic quagmire.
Olawepo-Hashim criticizes the Tinubu administration's economic reforms, arguing they lack innovation and merely recycle policies first introduced during the Structural Adjustment Programme of the 1980s. He questions the official claims of a strengthening Naira and easing inflation, stating that the true indicator of economic health is the lived experience of citizens, not just data points.
While acknowledging improved oil production levels, he argues that Nigeria should not be celebrating an output of 1.8 million barrels per day given its population and resource base. He also questions why the Naira remains weak despite higher oil production, subsidy removal, and reduced fuel imports due to local refining.
Looking ahead, Olawepo-Hashim emphasizes that if given the opportunity to lead, his first priorities would be the oil and electricity sectors, which he describes as foundational to economic recovery. He reiterates his claim that Nigeria could grow into a $4 trillion economy within eight years, arguing that double-digit growth is achievable through aggressive infrastructure investment and the use of sovereign guarantees rather than increased taxes or austerity.
On concerns about reform pain, Olawepo-Hashim insists his approach would focus on growth stimulation rather than burdening citizens. He addresses the internal divisions within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), blaming the ruling APC for destabilizing opposition parties but noting that recent court rulings have created a pathway for nominations and internal resolution.
This article invites readers to consider the complex economic challenges facing Nigeria and the need for bold, innovative solutions. It encourages discussion on the role of leadership, policy reforms, and the importance of addressing the lived experiences of citizens in shaping the country's economic future.
